GEO Test Proved Paid Search ROI
A statistically clean test turned a hunch about nonbranded search into a defendable growth case.
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100+
Stores tested in a statistically valid geo experiment
At a Glance
- Client
- Large home improvement retailer
- Engagement
- Paid Search, Marketing Mix Modeling
- Project
- Geo Testing
- Focus
- Prove incremental ROI of nonbranded paid search before reallocating spend
Overview
Platform metrics looked promising, but promising isn’t proof.
A large home improvement retailer needed a defendable way to measure the return on nonbranded search investment before changing channel allocation.
We treated data and creative as one system of proof, not separate workstreams, and built a geo test designed to hold up under scrutiny.
The Proof
The test measured a consistent, statistically significant sales lift from nonbranded search. Results stayed aligned with industry norms and validated the channel across markets. The region saw over 2 percentage points of growth in total revenue.
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Over 2 Percentage Points
Revenue growth across region
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Statistically Significant
Result validity
The Goal
Measure the true incremental impact of nonbranded paid search before the retailer committed to a bigger channel shift.
The Challenge
Platform metrics and informal pre- and post-reads suggested the channel was working, but the client needed a comprehensive ROI measurement they could trust. The test design also had to account for shoppers who visit multiple stores and for real market differences across a large region.
The Solution
We designed a geo test across a region with more than 100 stores. We segmented stores using historical sales patterns and trade area signals like local demographics, weather, and macroeconomic factors, then matched each store with a statistical twin to create a clean control set. That architecture gave the client an apples-to-apples read on performance and made the result explainable.
